If there’s one legitimate criticism to have of F1’s still-young dash race format, it’s that the 100km race on Saturday can typically take away a few of the thriller and intrigue forward of a grand prix.

When the outcomes of Saturday’s dash race set the grid for Sunday’s grand prix, it could successfully kind the primary 100km of a 400km two-part race. That meant that drivers, groups and followers all had a reasonably stable thought as to how the remainder of the race would play out, having seen who regarded robust and never so robust in race circumstances.

However with the revised format for 2023, the place the dash race is about by its personal qualifying session and has no bearing on the beginning order for the grand prix, there are far fewer concrete conclusions that may be drawn from what occurs on Saturday. And when it rains, because it did on the Purple Bull Ring, there’s even much less that may be drawn from the primary race of the weekend.

One conclusion which will be drawn – which nobody wanted a dash race to find – is that Max Verstappen and Purple Bull are going to be very robust to beat but once more. As soon as Verstappen reclaimed the lead from crew mate Sergio Perez on the opening lap, he rapidly re-established his dominance over him and everybody else.

One other first lap battle between the Purple Bulls isn’t on the cardsEven when Perez ultimately obtained forward of Nico Hulkenberg to take second place Verstappen’s lead continued to develop by one other 12 seconds over the second half of the race. On the chequered flag 21 seconds separated them.

But when Perez was not a lot of a priority for his crew mate within the dash race after the primary few corners, he’s prone to be even much less of an element on Sunday, provided that he begins down from fifteenth on the grid. As a substitute, Verstappen will face a double menace from a pair of Ferraris beginning instantly behind him on the grid – simply as he did right here final season.

Ferrari are determined to show they’ve made critical strides with their automotive with their latest upgrades and now have the right alternative to do exactly that by taking the battle on to Verstappen and Purple Bull at their very own circuit.

Final yr, Verstappen beat the Ferraris within the dash race however Sunday was a distinct matter totally. Leclerc caught and handed Verstappen no fewer than 3 times to take what can be his and Ferrari’s newest win thus far. However regardless of these pleased recollections and a renewed confidence following a irritating begin to the 2023 season, Leclerc doesn’t anticipate to have as robust an opportunity of catching Verstappen as he did final yr.

Count on tougher tyres to be the popular choice“I’d be very shocked if we’re doing the identical race as final yr,” Leclerc stated. “I hope so, and can do completely the whole lot for this, however I might be very shocked if we’ve obtained pretty much as good of a tempo as final yr.”

Leclerc won’t be the one Ferrari driver with Verstappen in his sights. Regardless of being crushed to second on the grid in qualifying on Friday, Sainz was comfortably the stronger of the 2 Ferrari drivers throughout dash day and says he’s heading into the grand prix with extra confidence that he has all season.

“I’ve been very snug, particularly immediately,” he stated. “For the reason that first lap of quali – which was truly my solely lap of SQ1 – I regarded very fast. I’m very relaxed with the automotive and stored the sensation by means of within the moist. Hopefully tomorrow within the dry, I affirm the step and we will be robust in the entire race.”

In terms of tyres, the three softest compounds in Pirelli’s vary might be accessible to the drivers. On Friday, excessive observe temperatures hovering round 50 levels had an impact on drivers’ rubber, resulting in George Russell describing the degradation they skilled as “fairly dangerous”. That implies that the probabilities of anybody going for a heroic one-stop technique with a marathon first or second stint – akin to that Alexander Albon and Williams pulled off in Montreal – is off the playing cards. One thing Pirelli’s chief F1 engineer Simone Berra agrees with.

“From what we’ve seen, the degradation was fairly excessive,” Berra confirmed on Friday after the only observe session and grand prix qualifying have been each run totally within the dry. “However in free observe, you have got a inexperienced observe.

“We had excessive observe temperatures – we don’t know if on Sunday we could have related temperatures, most likely barely decrease. However from the numbers that we have now, it’s most likely a two-stop race. On paper it needs to be faster, because it was final season.”

Final yr, the overwhelming majority opted to begin on the medium C4 tyres for the beginning of the race, switching to the onerous tyres throughout their first stops which averaged round lap 17 or 18. Most then selected a second set of hards to see them to the chequered flag. Nonetheless a late Digital Security Automotive for Sainz’s Ferrari spontaneously combusting prompting Leclerc and Verstappen to make third stops. All through the sector, not a single driver ran a single lap on the comfortable tyres throughout the race.

Dry circumstances ought to swimsuit the FerrarisHaving battled by means of dash race qualifying and the dash race itself in tough circumstances the place the observe was damp all through each periods, you might forgive the drivers for hoping for a dry 71 laps tomorrow. However whereas it can’t be assured that will probably be a dry race, there’s at the moment lower than a 20% danger of rain falling throughout the two hour window through which the race is because of happen.

Leclerc, particularly, might be anticipating the rain to remain away. He struggled to get his Ferrari into a snug window along with his intermediates within the dash race on a drying observe and admits he might be involved if he faces related circumstances on Sunday.

“If it does rain – once more in these half-dry, half-wet circumstances – sure,” he stated. “If it’s full-dry or full-wet, no, as a result of I do know that in these circumstances we’re robust and I really feel good. But it surely’s extra in these in-between circumstances that we’re struggling.”

With it wanting prefer it’s extra prone to be a dry race, Ferrari have their finest alternative of the season to this point to take the battle to Verstappen and Purple Bull. However whereas victory is all the time the objective, Sainz says he recognises how robust the dimensions of the problem is for him and his crew mate.

“By no means say by no means, however you understand how tough will probably be,” stated Sainz. “We’re in a great place although with two automobiles proper behind him and able to assault.”

Qualifying instances in full

Place
Quantity
Driver
Workforce
Q1 time
Q2 time (vs Q1)
Q3 time (vs Q2)

1
1
Max Verstappen
Purple Bull-Honda RBPT
1’05.116
1’04.951 (-0.165s)
1’04.391 (-0.560s)

2
16
Charles Leclerc
Ferrari
1’05.577
1’05.087 (-0.490s)
1’04.439 (-0.648s)

3
55
Carlos Sainz Jnr
Ferrari
1’05.339
1’04.975 (-0.364s)
1’04.581 (-0.394s)

4
4
Lando Norris
McLaren-Mercedes
1’05.617
1’05.038 (-0.579s)
1’04.658 (-0.380s)

5
44
Lewis Hamilton
Mercedes
1’05.673
1’05.188 (-0.485s)
1’04.819 (-0.369s)

6
18
Lance Stroll
Aston Martin-Mercedes
1’05.710
1’05.121 (-0.589s)
1’04.893 (-0.228s)

7
14
Fernando Alonso
Aston Martin-Mercedes
1’05.655
1’05.181 (-0.474s)
1’04.911 (-0.270s)

8
27
Nico Hulkenberg
Haas-Ferrari
1’05.740
1’05.362 (-0.378s)
1’05.090 (-0.272s)

9
10
Pierre Gasly
Alpine-Renault
1’05.515
1’05.308 (-0.207s)
1’05.170 (-0.138s)

10
23
Alexander Albon
Williams-Mercedes
1’05.673
1’05.387 (-0.286s)
1’05.823 (+0.436s)

11
63
George Russell
Mercedes
1’05.686
1’05.428 (-0.258s)
Missed by 0.041s

12
31
Esteban Ocon
Alpine-Renault
1’05.729
1’05.453 (-0.276s)
Missed by 0.066s

13
81
Oscar Piastri
McLaren-Mercedes
1’05.683
1’05.605 (-0.078s)
Missed by 0.218s

14
77
Valtteri Bottas
Alfa Romeo-Ferrari
1’05.763
1’05.680 (-0.083s)
Missed by 0.293s

15
11
Sergio Perez
Purple Bull-Honda RBPT
1’05.177
2’06.688 (+61.511s)
Missed by 61.301s

16
22
Yuki Tsunoda
AlphaTauri-Honda RBPT
1’05.784
Missed by 0.021s

17
24
Zhou Guanyu
Alfa Romeo-Ferrari
1’05.818
Missed by 0.055s

18
2
Logan Sargeant
Williams-Mercedes
1’05.948
Missed by 0.185s

19
20
Kevin Magnussen
Haas-Ferrari
1’05.971
Missed by 0.208s

20
21
Nyck de Vries
AlphaTauri-Honda RBPT
1’05.974
Missed by 0.211s

Sector instances

Place
Quantity
Driver
Sector one
Sector two
Sector three
Final lap
Deficit to final lap

1
1
Max Verstappen
16.3 (1)
28.732 (2)
19.359 (1)
1’04.391
–

2
16
Charles Leclerc
16.336 (4)
28.686 (1)
19.417 (2)
1’04.439
–

3
55
Carlos Sainz Jnr
16.304 (2)
28.785 (3)
19.479 (3)
1’04.568
0.013

4
4
Lando Norris
16.358 (6)
28.808 (4)
19.492 (4)
1’04.658
–

5
44
Lewis Hamilton
16.312 (3)
28.975 (9)
19.532 (5)
1’04.819
–

6
11
Sergio Perez
16.438 (11)
28.839 (5)
19.559 (8)
1’04.836
0.341

7
14
Fernando Alonso
16.399 (10)
28.919 (6)
19.542 (7)
1’04.860
0.051

8
18
Lance Stroll
16.388 (7)
28.969 (8)
19.536 (6)
1’04.893
–

9
10
Pierre Gasly
16.398 (9)
29.028 (10)
19.595 (10)
1’05.021
0.149

10
27
Nico Hulkenberg
16.392 (8)
28.94 (7)
19.758 (15)
1’05.090
–

11
31
Esteban Ocon
16.475 (13)
29.124 (13)
19.593 (9)
1’05.192
0.261

12
81
Oscar Piastri
16.519 (16)
29.081 (11)
19.613 (11)
1’05.213
0.392

13
23
Alexander Albon
16.346 (5)
29.225 (15)
19.683 (12)
1’05.254
0.133

14
63
George Russell
16.515 (14)
29.097 (12)
19.704 (13)
1’05.316
0.112

15
77
Valtteri Bottas
16.518 (15)
29.179 (14)
19.736 (14)
1’05.433
0.247

16
20
Kevin Magnussen
16.553 (18)
29.227 (16)
19.841 (16)
1’05.621
0.350

17
24
Zhou Guanyu
16.537 (17)
29.239 (17)
19.892 (19)
1’05.668
0.150

18
22
Yuki Tsunoda
16.6 (19)
29.329 (19)
19.852 (18)
1’05.781
0.003

19
21
Nyck de Vries
16.719 (20)
29.322 (18)
19.844 (17)
1’05.885
0.089

20
2
Logan Sargeant
16.463 (12)
29.383 (20)
20.102 (20)
1’05.948
–

Pace entice

Place
Quantity
Driver
Automotive
Engine
Mannequin
Max kph (mph)

1
23
Alexander Albon
Williams
Mercedes
FW45
322.0 (200.1)

2
1
Max Verstappen
Purple Bull
Honda RBPT
RB19
320.7 (199.3)

3
55
Carlos Sainz Jnr
Ferrari
Ferrari
SF-23
320.7 (199.3)

4
2
Logan Sargeant
Williams
Mercedes
FW45
319.9 (198.8)

5
11
Sergio Perez
Purple Bull
Honda RBPT
RB19
319.5 (198.5)

6
16
Charles Leclerc
Ferrari
Ferrari
SF-23
318.6 (198.0)

7
27
Nico Hulkenberg
Haas
Ferrari
VF-23
318.2 (197.7)

8
24
Zhou Guanyu
Alfa Romeo
Ferrari
C43
317.3 (197.2)

9
77
Valtteri Bottas
Alfa Romeo
Ferrari
C43
317.2 (197.1)

10
20
Kevin Magnussen
Haas
Ferrari
VF-23
316.9 (196.9)

11
44
Lewis Hamilton
Mercedes
Mercedes
W14
316.7 (196.8)

12
63
George Russell
Mercedes
Mercedes
W14
316.6 (196.7)

13
10
Pierre Gasly
Alpine
Renault
A523
316.4 (196.6)

14
4
Lando Norris
McLaren
Mercedes
MCL60
316.3 (196.5)

15
18
Lance Stroll
Aston Martin
Mercedes
AMR23
316.1 (196.4)

16
31
Esteban Ocon
Alpine
Renault
A523
315.5 (196.0)

17
81
Oscar Piastri
McLaren
Mercedes
MCL60
314.9 (195.7)

18
22
Yuki Tsunoda
AlphaTauri
Honda RBPT
AT04
314.8 (195.6)

19
14
Fernando Alonso
Aston Martin
Mercedes
AMR23
314.6 (195.5)

20
21
Nyck de Vries
AlphaTauri
Honda RBPT
AT04
313.3 (194.7)

Over to you

Is there any lifelike menace to a different victory for Max Verstappen? Have Ferrari lastly obtained on prime of their tyre degradation woes?

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